Bitcoin mining is a crucial function in the production of new coins through the verification of payments. This system means that ‘miners’ are essentially getting paid for their work as auditors. They are verifying the legitimacy of Bitcoin transactions and being rewarded for it with Bitcoin.
However, every time 210,000 blocks are mined the block reward for mining is halved. The first halving event occurred in 2012 when the reward of 50 BTC was reduced to 25 BTC. This is a key mechanism to control the supply of new Bitcoin entering circulation. In the past, this has also led to positive price action, as limiting the supply and controlling inflation can benefit the ecosystem.
A new study by crypto tax experts at CoinLedger has analysed the past three halvings to see what price Bitcoin would be if it followed the past patterns. For this research, CoinLedger has based figures on if Bitcoin is at its most recent high of $69,000 when it halves at some point in April.
The data took the average price increase from the 2016 and 2020 halvings to calculate the price of Bitcoin.
| New BTC block reward | Price on Halving Day ($) | Price 3 months later ($) | % increase from halving day | Price 6 months later ($) | % increase from halving day | Price 1 year later ($) | % increase from halving day | |
| 2012 (Nov 28) | 25 | 12 | 30 | 150.20 | 129 | 950.77 | 1003 | 8024.53 |
| 2016 (Jul 9) | 12.5 | 650 | 722 | 10.99 | 986 | 51.57 | 2502 | 284.61 |
| 2020 (May 11) | 6.25 | 8572 | 11393 | 32.91 | 15702 | 83.18 | 56764 | 562.20 |
| 2024 (TBC) | 3.125 | 69,000* | 84,145 | 21.95 | 115,733 | 67.73 | 361,152 | 423.41 |
3 months post-halving
In 2016 the price on the halving day was $650; after three months, this increased to $722, a 10.99% increase.
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By GlobalDataIn 2020, the price rose from $8,572 to $11,393 within three months, an increase of 32.91%.
The average increase across these two events is 21.95%, which would mean that in 2024, three months after Bitcoin halves, the price could rise to $84,145 if it were to follow historical patterns (based on a price of $69,000 at the time of halving).
6 months post-halving
In 2016, six months after the halving the price rose further to $986, which is an increase of 51.57% from the post-halving price of $650.
In 2020, the price of Bitcoin increased to $15,702 after six months, which is a rise of 83.17%.
Based on the average figures from above this is equal to an average increase of 67.73% after six months. If a similar pattern were to follow, then Bitcoin could rise to a high of $115,733. Although this seems like a high estimation Bitcoin has shocked people before in past bull runs.
12 months post-halving
One year after the halving has seen eye-watering price action in the past. In 2012, after the first halving, the price rose from $12 to $1,003 over a year, an 8,000% increase. The research didn’t include 2012 in the averages, as at the current price and market cap it would be almost impossible to see increases of this nature.
In 2016, the price after a year was $2,502, an increase of 284%. In 2020, the price of a Bitcoin was $56,764, which was a 562% increase from the pre-halving price of $8,572.
This is an average of 423% a year after a halving event. This would give Bitcoin a price of $361,152. It is extremely unlikely that Bitcoin will reach this figure within 12 months, however, many analysts have figures of $150,000 to $250,000 in 2025.
A spokesperson from CoinLedger commented: “Bitcoin has performed well recently very early on into this cycle. This has got many people excited about how high Bitcoin could rise in the coming year and the halving only adds to this, as history has proven that halving events can positively impact the price.
“Time will tell which Bitcoin price predictions for the 2024 halving come true, if any. As always, we recommend doing your own research, staying on top of the latest industry happenings, and never investing more money than you can afford to lose!”
